Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Fisher Capital Management Seoul

Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Fisher Capital Management Seoul - Conditions in the government bond markets have remained very difficult over the past month, and there have been further falls in some of the minor markets, especially in the euro-zone, because of continuing fears about sovereign debt defaults. The agreement reached by the member countries of the euro-zone to combine with the

IMF to provide any necessary support to enable Greece to refinance its maturing debts and avoid a default has had a poor response in the markets; but at least Greece has been able to make further bond issues; and the gilt edged market has coped fairly well so far with a disappointing Budget statement that has left any real attempt to resolve the serious UK debt problems until after the general election. But the sudden weakness in the world bond markets after a series of disappointing auctions has once again increased the tensions.

Our position remains unchanged; any existing exposure to bonds should be further reduced in favor of US & Euro equities.

Fisher Capital Management Seoul, South Korea - The global economic recovery is developing slowly, and so short-term interest rates

are likely to remain at low levels for a considerable period. It is also possible that

the “fudged” agreement amongst member countries of the euro-zone will provide

an opportunity for the introduction of the necessary austerity measures; and that

a new government will finally begin to address the debt problems in the UK. But

the risks in the situation are still increasing, sovereign debt defaults may still occur,

and the single currency system in the euro-zone may not be sustainable in its present

form. Higher bond yields therefore appear unavoidable; prospects for all the bond

markets are unattractive.

Developments in the bond market over the past month have clearly illustrated the

need for caution. The US economy continues to recover. The Fed has left shortterm

interest rates unchanged, and has indicated that they will remain “at exceptionally

low levels for an extended period”. This tended to enhance the “safe haven” status

of the US equity market for most of the past month, as conditions continued to

deteriorate in other bond markets.

Fisher Capital Management Seoul, South Korea - Most of the available evidence supports the view that the economic recovery is

continuing, but only at a slow pace. The unemployment rate remains close to 10%,

and the housing sector is still depressed, with both new housing starts and sales of

existing homes weakened still further by adverse weather conditions. However

retail sales are holding up fairly well, and manufacturers are beginning to increase

capital expenditures and inventories, and so there is a general expectation that

growth in the first quarter will be around a 2% annualized rate.

Fisher Capital Management Seoul, South Korea - The Fed has confirmed that its buying programmed for mortgage-backed securities

has ended, and that it may be moving slowly towards re-selling some of these

securities; but it seems to be in no hurry, and so both the economic background,

and the position of the central bank, remain broadly supportive.

The situation facing investors in the mainland European bond markets is more

serious. The economic background is improving, with the weaker euro providing

considerable support in export markets, and so the area continues to move out of

recession. But progress is slow, and so the European Central Bank is maintaining

very low short-term interest rates, and providing support. However the massive

fiscal deficits are threatening to overwhelm the bond markets and to lead to sovereign

debt defaults, and so investors have continued to switch from the bonds of the

weaker countries into those of the stronger countries, and have widened the yield

spreads across the markets. The latest Greek bond auctions have received only a

very moderate response, and there is considerable uncertainty whether even the

markets of the stronger countries are adequately discounting the risks in the situation.

Fisher Capital Management Seoul, South Korea - The available evidence on the performance of the euro-zone economy is mixed,

but slightly more encouraging. The weakness in domestic demand is continuing,

and retail sales volumes are disappointing in most member countries; but the

manufacturing sector, especially in Germany, is much more buoyant, with exports

providing most of the momentum. The latest Ifo index of business sentiment in

Germany is sharply higher, and other countries are also sharing in the improvement.

Analysts are therefore forecasting growth around the 0.5% level in the first quarter

of the year.

Fisher Capital Management- Financial Market August 2010

Fisher Capital Management- Financial Markets: Sentiment in the financial markets has improved

over the past month. The global economic recovery is continuing,

so far there have been no sovereign debt defaults, and there has

been a modest recovery in the euro. Investors and traders therefore

appear to have concluded that the gloom was overdone.

But there has been evidence of a worsening situation in Spain, and

the decision by the Chinese authorities to adopt a “more flexible”

towards renminbi has also raised some concerns about the growth

prospects for the Chinese economy.

Fisher Capital Management- Equity Markets: All the major equity markets, and the emerging

markets, have improved over the past month. Wall Street has outperformed

markets elsewhere because of some welcome economic

data; there have been strong gains in most of the mainland European

markets as the sovereign debt crisis has appeared to ease; the UK

market has welcomed the measures by the new coalition government

to address the problems of the huge UK fiscal deficit; and the

Japanese market has also moved slightly higher. Corporate results

have been satisfactory; and this has helped to improve sentiment

amongst investors.

Government Bond Markets have had another unusual month. The

sovereign debt crisis might have been expected to lead to a general

weakness in bond markets; but the main effect has been to produce

aggressive switching for the “weaker” markets to the “stronger”

ones, and a further widening of the yield curve.

As a result the major markets are unchanged or only slightly lower

at a time when the “weaker” markets, especially in Southern Europe,

have continued their sharp declines. Slow economic growth and

low short-term interest rates are continuing to provide support.

Currencies: The improvement in sentiment in the markets has led

to a movement of funds out of the “safe havens” of the dollar and

the yen into commodity-related currencies and “riskier” assets.

Both the dollar and the yen are therefore slightly weaker over the

month; and this movement has also eased some of the pressure on

the euro, and allowed it to recover.

Sterling has also improved as the markets have welcomed the

measures introduced by the new UK government to reduce the

fiscal deficit.

Fisher Capital Management- Shrt-Term Interest Rates: There have been no changes in shortterm

interest rates over the past month in the major financial

markets.

Fisher Capital Management- Commodity markets: have produced a mixed performance over the

past month, with some weakness in base metal prices, but strong

gains in the prices of cocoa, coffee, oil and precious metals.

Fisher Capital Management: Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Part2

Fisher Capital Management: Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Part 2 - Our position remains unchanged; any existing exposure to bonds should be further reduced in favor of US & Euro equities.

The European Central Bank appears to share this view, although it has warned that the recovery “is likely to remain uneven”, and has kept short-term rates at very low levels. The bond markets have therefore continued to receive considerable support from the economic background and the actions of the central bank.

Fisher Capital Management Seoul, South Korea: However, these factors have been much less important than the fears about the debt problems in Greece and in other weaker members of the euro-zone. After considerable

prevarication, due primarily to strong German opposition to a bail-out; an agreement

has been reached amongst the member countries that, in conjunction with the IMF,

they will provide support for Greece if this becomes necessary to prevent a default

on its sovereign debts.

But the details of the agreement are very vague, and there is certainly no guarantee

that the country can carry out its promises to introduce significant reductions in

spending levels to reduce the size of its debts. The agreement has helped the country

to issue a further ¤5 billion bond; but it was forced to offer an interest rate of 5.9%

on a seven-year bond, 325 basis points above the equivalent German bund, and

that issue has subsequently moved to a substantial discount. Conditions have also

been made worse by the downgrade in Portugal’s credit rating, and so the pressures

on the bond markets are continuing.

Fisher Capital Management Seoul, South Korea: The gilt edged market has coped fairly well so far with the latest weakness in the

bond market, an inadequate response in the latest Budget to the debt problems in

the UK, and a warning from the Fitch rating agency that the government’s timetable

for reducing the fiscal deficit was “frankly too slow”, and that the country’s

credit rating was at risk. The economic recovery remains very slow, and the Bank

of England is holding short-term interest rates close to zero, so the market is

receiving some support; but in all the circumstances it is perhaps surprising that

it has managed to perform so well.

Fisher Capital Management Seoul, South Korea: The economic background in the UK remains depressed, but is slowly improving.

Retail sales bounced back strongly; the public sector continued its recruitment

programmed; and there has been a pickup in activity in both the manufacturing and

service sectors of the economy.

It was not surprising therefore that the Bank of England kept short-term interest

rates unchanged at the latest meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee and even

suggested that it would be prepared to reactivate its quantitative easing programmed

if this proved to be necessary. But this may not be enough to sustain gilt edged

prices at current levels.

Fisher Capital Management Seoul, South Korea: The latest Budget statement is forecasting a slightly lower fiscal deficit of £167 billion in the 2009/10 fiscal year, and a halving of the deficit by 2013/14; but there

is considerable skepticism in the markets about the growth assumptions underlying

the figures, and about the willingness of the politicians to address the real problems

involved in reducing the deficit. If there is no credible plan to achieve this reduction,

the country may well lose its AAA credit rating. Prospects have therefore become

even more uncertain, and a move to higher yield levels seems unavoidable.

Fisher Capital Management Seoul, South Korea: The Japanese bond market is slightly weaker over the past month. It is likely that this year, for the first time, bond issuance may provide greater support for the fiscal

deficit than tax revenues. This has already led to a downgrade on Japanese public

debt by Standard and Poor’s, and with new bond issuance this year estimated to

reach ¥44,300 billion, and to reach ¥55,300 billion by 2013, further downgrades

seem likely. Japanese institutional investors are used to financing massive deficits,

but it seems unlikely that deficits of this size can be adequately financed at present

yield levels. Prospects for the Japanese market therefore remain unattractive.

Fisher Capital Management South Korea, Brazil’s Economy: 1st Quarter

Fisher Capital Management Seoul Korea, Brazil’s Economy - The brief recession of 2009 has given way to a robust increase in consumer demand and recovery in investment in Brazil in 2010. The economy is likely to grow 5.5%

this year. GDP grew 2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2009 and fell 0.2%

for the whole of 2009 compared with 2008.

Fisher Capital Management South Korea Investing: - The central bank did not raise its target overnight interest rate, the so-called Selic rate, unchanged leaving it at 8.75% a year. This was expected as the presidential

election is nearing. The rate fell from 13.75% to 8.75% between December 2008

and July 2009. By the year-end, the rate is expected to rise by 250 basis points to

curb inflation.

Even though the US and Brazil are not as open an economy as one would believe.

Trade accounts for approximately 14% for both the countries. US cotton subsidies had been a bone of contention for the two countries. The US was accused of excessive cotton subsidies by Brazil. After eight years of litigation at the World Trade Organization Brazil has won the case and Brazil’s move to raise tariffs on

a wide range of American goods has a potential of starting a new front in the trade

war with the US over cotton subsidies. Overall, the issue is still not blown out of

proportion as the two countries are engaged on other fronts.

Fisher Capital Management Korea, Brazil’s Economy: 1st Quarter Investment - Brazil’s government announced a R$958.9bn programme of investments in infrastructure for 2011 to 2014. The program is known as the PAC 2 … the

Portuguese acronym for accelerated growth programme, part two … to increase

Brazil’s investment rate and its potential for economic growth during the period

of the next government, which begins on January 1 2011.

Fisher Capital Management South Korea, Investment News: Henrique Meirelles who provided monetary stability to Brazil is all set to stand for election either as a Vice President or a senator. President Lula may choose him to

run for the Vice President office to send a message that macroeconomic stability

will be maintained under Ms Rousseff, presidential nominee of Mr. Lula’s party in the October election.

Fisher Capital is a leading global financial institution holding extensive relationships with financial institutions, institutional investors and corporations across the world.

As a full service company Fisher Capital provides a full range of investment banking services including advanced risk management, corporate strategy and structure, plus raising capital through debt and equity markets. With this as our backbone we continue to provide a client service second to none.

Let us keep you informed of all the latest news and developments with our free monthly newsletter of analysis and recommendations.

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South Korea: Market Overview 2010 Fisher Capital Management Seoul

South Korea:  Fisher Capital Management Seoul  - The South Korean economy is expected to grow by 4–5% in 2010. The government’s efforts were seriously questioned when it clipped the independence of the central bank when the government sent its observers to the central bank’s policy meetings.

However, the central bank will start raising interest rates in the third quarter to prevent inflation and asset bubbles. For the time being inflation is stable. It fell from 3.1% in January to 2.7% in February, but inflation will accelerate in the second half due to higher oil prices and rising imports. This should see policy interest rates

to go up by 25 basis points in the third quarter and another 25 basis points in December.

South Korea: Market Overview 2010 Fisher Capital Management Seoul - The government appointed Mr. Kim, who has served as a presidential economic secretary and is currently South Korea’s ambassador to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Under the new leadership, the central bank may cooperate even more closely with the government than it has under Governor Lee. The central bank under Mr. Kim may be more willing to risk inflation

in order to ensure that the economic recovery remains on track. The Korean policy

interest rate has been at an all-time low of 2.0% for more than a year now and the bank expects inflation to stay around 2.5% in the near future.

South Korea: Market Overview 2010 Fisher Capital Management Seoul - Fisher Capital is a leading global financial institution holding extensive relationships with financial institutions, institutional investors and corporations across the world.

As a full service company Fisher Capital provides a full range of investment banking services including advanced risk management, corporate strategy and structure, plus raising capital through debt and equity markets. With this as our backbone we continue to provide a client service second to none.

The Fisher Capital Difference

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Access to industry leading Investment Advisors- Investment Advisors who are invited to join Fisher Capital are recognized leaders in financial services who share our values of trust and integrity. They have built successful practices and are respected by clients for delivering results and superior service.

Exclusive and industry leading products and services - Our Investment Advisory teams constantly review the marketplace searching for trends and opportunities to enhance wealth. Core investment solutions are complemented by our ability to deliver institutional power allowing you to invest alongside Fisher Capital through exclusive offerings such as private equity as well as hedging strategies and other alternative investment strategies.

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Experience our difference - Learn how your Investment Advisor, with the support of the team of professionals at Fisher Capital, can help address the issues you face while preserving, enhancing and transferring your wealth.

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Let us keep you informed of all the latest news and developments with our free monthly newsletter of analysis and recommendations.

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China: Market Overview 1st Quarter 2010 Fisher Capital Management Korea

Fisher Capital Management Seoul Korea - April is going to set the tone for the world economy depending on how China is labeled by the US and China’s reaction to it. Our gut feeling is that apart from the rhetoric — which is in the air with respect to the Yuan-dollar rates, China’s current account surplus and internet independence — neither of them will rock the boat.

Already five prominent members of the G20 — South Korea, Canada, France, the US and the UK — have sent a coded warning to China against reneging on economic agreements. Perception of China and the US in international relations is far apart.

According to China, the main issues are Taiwan and the sale of arms to Tibet and

for the US the issues are the Yuan-dollar rate, trade surplus and Internet freedom.

China: Market Overview 1st Quarter 2010 Fisher Capital Management Seoul Korea - Under the Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act of 1988, the U.S. government

is to decide whether to label China a “currency manipulator.” This has not been

done since 1994, but if China is named, it will give the US Congress new ammunition

to press for concrete action. China is asserting itself in international relations.

Beijing has emerged from the global recession with a fresh confidence about its

state-led economy, which has delivered stimulus projects from high-speed railways

to highways and bridges with remarkable efficiency. And it is in no mood to be

lectured by Washington about how to support the world economy or to operate her

own economy.

China’s economic growth will be around 10% in 2010 following strong industrial

output growth in coming months. Inflation may rise to 3.5–4% in 2010. The government’s target of inflation is 3%. But, China has hidden debt risk among Chinese local government investment companies. Official estimates of the total outstanding loan balance for such investment entities exceed Rmb 6,000bn — or roughly 20% of GDP — a figure that may be an underestimate.

China: Market Overview 1st Quarter 2010 Fisher Capital Management Korea - Undervaluation of the Yuan is taken for granted and is estimated to be in the range of 30–40%. The US administration believes that the Yuan’s appreciation will not only solve the trade deficit problem between the US and China but also the US unemployment.

Beijing’s position is that China’s currency policy isn’t the cause of the U.S.’s economic problems, and that China wouldn’t adjust its currency rate under outside pressure. “The Chinese government will only make the decision according to the national condition and the country’s development level,” according the Chinese President Wen. China believes that a surge in the Yuan could destabilize the global economy, hitting developing nations especially hard and even perhaps causing the value of the dollar to plunge.

The World Bank forecasts that China’s current-account surplus, the broadest measure

of its trade position, will rise this year to $304 billion, after dropping to $284.1 billion

in 2009 from a record $426.1 billion in 2008.

Fisher Capital is a leading global financial institution holding extensive relationships with financial institutions, institutional investors and corporations across the world.

As a full service company Fisher Capital provides a full range of investment banking services including advanced risk management, corporate strategy and structure, plus raising capital through debt and equity markets. With this as our backbone we continue to provide a client service second to none.

Fisher Capital Management: Market Performance – US Economy

Fisher Capital Management Report, Part 1 - Output growth exceeded what were once considered lofty expectations during the third quarter, as real GDP (inflation adjusted Gross Domestic Product) rose by a 3.5% annual pace from the previous quarter. To be sure, this was the first gain in economic activity after four consecutive quarterly declines in GDP. While technically this indicates an end to the recession, we point out that on a year-over-year (YOY) basis, economic activity has still declined 2.3%, yet it represents an improvement from the -3.8% YOY in the second quarter, the worst annual drop in seven decades.  The components of GDP were led by growth in personal consumption, which increased 3.4% as stimulus programs such as “Cash for Clunkers” allowed consumer spending to increase by the largest amount in two years. Home construction surged at an annual rate of 23%, spurred on by the $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers. Another decline in business inventories also added to output, as did the growth in government spending (2.3%). Though businesses increased spending on equipment and software, fixed investment remained weak.

Market Performance, US Economy: Fisher Capital Management Report - As the positive effects of federal stimuli diminish, we continue to project an economic recovery that is “less spectacular” than in previous experiences. While output growth has improved as government programs spurred consumption relative to housing and autos, our concern rests on the economy¹s ability to sustain these rates of growth as government programs wane. Indeed, personal spending fell 0.5% in September after the “Cash for Clunkers” program concluded in August. Consumer confidence also weakened in October as the unemployment rate approached 10%. Until we experience a sustainable floor in housing and a ceiling on the unemployment rate, we suspect output growth will rely on exports, inventories, and government outlays, areas that we characterize as “cushions” for growth.

Market Performance, US Economy: Fisher Capital Management Report - As the unemployment rate lingers within the range of 10% and Fed policymakers remain committed to keeping interest rates low for an “extended period,” we look for real GDP to expand at an average rate of approximately 2.5% in 2010.

Fisher Capital Management, Korea is a leading global financial institution holding extensive relationships with financial institutions, institutional investors and corporations across the world.

As a full service company Fisher Capital Management, Korea provides a full range of investment banking services including advanced risk management, corporate strategy and structure, plus raising capital through debt and equity markets. With this as our backbone we continue to provide a client service second to none.

Market Overview December 2009: Fisher Capital Management

Market Overview December 2009: Fisher Capital Management - Stocks closed lower in October for the first time in seven months, as investors questioned whether the huge rally off the March lows had exceeded the economy’s ability to generate growth in output and profits.

Indeed, equities capped off a volatile month (the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experienced triple-digit moves in ten trading sessions!) with a volatile week, as the S&P 500 Index experienced its worst five-day span since early July.

For the month, the DJIA eked out a fractional gain, while all the other major equity market indices suffered losses. Small cap stocks, which had been among the performance leaders of the seven-month rally, experienced the worst hit, with the Russell 2000® Index falling by almost 7%. In another sign that the market may be growing skeptical of the “higher risk, higher reward” strategy, the NASDAQ Composite Index, dominated by technology holdings, declined 3.6% for the month.

Market Overview December 2009: Fisher Capital Management - Yet perhaps emblematic of the struggles experienced in the markets recently, growth stocks outperformed value in October, contradicting the idea that the pursuit of “risk” had become out of favor over the past several weeks. Moreover, the weakness in U.S. markets failed to extend beyond our borders last month, as developed markets (MSCI EAFE) experienced just a fractional loss, while the emerging markets (MSCI EM) managed to rise by up to 1%, adding to their impressive year-to-date (YTD) returns.

From a sector perspective, two of the three leading performers off the March lows (financials and materials) declined by the largest amounts in October, as investors appeared to lock in gains of approximately 150% for the financials sector and 75% for the materials sector. Despite the weakness in the technologyladen NASDAQ Composite last month, the higher-quality and larger-cap tech names comprising the S&P 500 Index’s information technology sector simply dropped fractionally. Rising oil prices pushed the energy sector higher by 3%, and the “defensive trade” was still evident within the consumer staples sector, which held on for a 1% gain.

Market Overview December 2009: Fisher Capital Management - In other asset classes, fixed-income was mixed last month. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note backed up by seven basis points, as traders likely moved funds elsewhere as the Federal Reserve concluded its $300 billion Treasury purchase program. The dollar continued to weaken, hovering near 14-month lows, which helped drive up the prices for oil, gold, and most commodities.

Fisher Capital Management Korea is a leading global financial institution holding extensive relationships with financial institutions, institutional investors and corporations across the world. As a full service company Fisher Capital Management Korea provides a full range of investment banking services including advanced risk management, corporate strategy and structure, plus raising capital through debt and equity markets. With this as our backbone we continue to provide a client service second to none.