Fisher Capital Management- Financial Market August 2010

Fisher Capital Management- Financial Markets: Sentiment in the financial markets has improved

over the past month. The global economic recovery is continuing,

so far there have been no sovereign debt defaults, and there has

been a modest recovery in the euro. Investors and traders therefore

appear to have concluded that the gloom was overdone.

But there has been evidence of a worsening situation in Spain, and

the decision by the Chinese authorities to adopt a “more flexible”

towards renminbi has also raised some concerns about the growth

prospects for the Chinese economy.

Fisher Capital Management- Equity Markets: All the major equity markets, and the emerging

markets, have improved over the past month. Wall Street has outperformed

markets elsewhere because of some welcome economic

data; there have been strong gains in most of the mainland European

markets as the sovereign debt crisis has appeared to ease; the UK

market has welcomed the measures by the new coalition government

to address the problems of the huge UK fiscal deficit; and the

Japanese market has also moved slightly higher. Corporate results

have been satisfactory; and this has helped to improve sentiment

amongst investors.

Government Bond Markets have had another unusual month. The

sovereign debt crisis might have been expected to lead to a general

weakness in bond markets; but the main effect has been to produce

aggressive switching for the “weaker” markets to the “stronger”

ones, and a further widening of the yield curve.

As a result the major markets are unchanged or only slightly lower

at a time when the “weaker” markets, especially in Southern Europe,

have continued their sharp declines. Slow economic growth and

low short-term interest rates are continuing to provide support.

Currencies: The improvement in sentiment in the markets has led

to a movement of funds out of the “safe havens” of the dollar and

the yen into commodity-related currencies and “riskier” assets.

Both the dollar and the yen are therefore slightly weaker over the

month; and this movement has also eased some of the pressure on

the euro, and allowed it to recover.

Sterling has also improved as the markets have welcomed the

measures introduced by the new UK government to reduce the

fiscal deficit.

Fisher Capital Management- Shrt-Term Interest Rates: There have been no changes in shortterm

interest rates over the past month in the major financial

markets.

Fisher Capital Management- Commodity markets: have produced a mixed performance over the

past month, with some weakness in base metal prices, but strong

gains in the prices of cocoa, coffee, oil and precious metals.