Sentiment in the equity markets has been steady over the past month. Markets in Europe have been unable to resist downward pressure. The Japanese market is also lower; but there has been resistance amongst the emerging markets in South East Asia that are supported by more favourable economic conditions.
The Chinese authorities are obviously determined to prevent their economy from overheating. The global recovery will therefore only proceed at a very slow pace, and there may well be setbacks along the way, although a move into a “double-dip” recession still seems unlikely. There is also an increased danger of a sovereign debt default by Greece, and possibly even by Ireland. But the swing in sentiment should not go too far. So long as monetary policy remains supportive, the global economic recovery is likely to continue, and this will eventually produce a sustainable improvement in equity prices. Patience will therefore be the most important requirement amongst investors until some of the uncertainties have been resolved.
The Fed is in a very difficult position. The statement after its latest OMC meeting was cautious about economic prospects, conceding that “the pace of recovery in output and in employment has slowed in recent months” and was likely to be “more modest” than anticipated in the near-term. But monetary policy was left basically unchanged at the meeting, perhaps because of the “unusual uncertainty” about prospects, and this caused some disappointment. However there is little doubt that further monetary easing will be introduced if the position continues to deteriorate, because the bank’s main priority is to try to maintain some momentum in the economy. And fiscal policy is also likely to remain supportive, despite the massive size of the existing deficit. Congress has been reluctant to authorise additional spending programmes; but there is intense political pressure ahead of the elections in November, and further programmes seem likely.
The critical question for investors therefore is whether the continued monetary and fiscal support will be enough. They have been prepared to adopt a bullish attitude to the situation, and this mood has been helped by an encouraging flow of corporate earnings results that have often exceeded expectations, and confirmed that the corporate sector has been coping well so far with a difficult situation.
The gloom should not be overdone. So long as monetary policy remains supportive, we believe that the odds favour the continuation of the slow recovery, and that this will eventually produce better market conditions.
Mainland European markets have fallen back sharply over the past month, after the strong rally. There has been evidence of a further improvement in the economic background in the euro-zone, and second quarter corporate results have generally been encouraging; but the signs of weakness in the US economy and the slowdown in China has raised doubts about whether the German export performance that has been providing most of the momentum for the recovery can be maintained; and there have also been renewed concerns about the possibility of debt defaults amongst the weaker member countries of the zone. The markets have therefore been unable to resist downward pressure.
The euro-zone economy improved much faster than expected in the second quarter of the year. Growth is estimated to have been around the 1% level, the fastest quarterly level for three years; and this has eased the fears about a move into a “double-dip” recession, at least for the moment. But it is a two-speed recovery, with the German economy estimated to have grown by 2.2% during the quarter, the Netherlands economy by 0.9%, and the French economy by 0.6%, but with Spain and Portugal basically unchanged and the Greek economy falling further into recession. With domestic demand weak, it is therefore essential that overseas demand remains buoyant if German exports are going to continue to drive the overall economy forward; but this is now very uncertain, and so growth projections for the rest of this year and for 2011 are still fairly cautious.
However the European Central Bank is maintaining its optimistic view of prospects. Speaking before the latest figures were announced, the chairman, Jean Claude Trichet, argued that the second quarter outturn would be better than expected, that there would also be an encouraging result in the third quarter, and that there was no prospect of a move into a “double-dip” recession.
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