Fisher Capital Management - Japan Elects a New Premier Part 2

Fisher Capital Management Eight and a half months after riding the Democratic Party of Japan’s (DPJ) historic lower house victory into office, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama announced his resignation, having haphazardly frittered away a chest brimming with political capital.

Major newspapers said that Hatoyama was resigning mainly for two reasons: his failure to keep his promise to relocate the functions of US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, Okinawa, out of Okinawa Prefecture, and a political funding scandal that included his mother’s provision of some ¥1.26 billion to him over years.

Fisher Capital Management - Japan Elects a New Premier Part 2: Instead of deregulation and lower corporate taxes, he envisions increased employment and consumption through focused government spending in nursing, medicine and other social welfare fields. But some economists expressed doubts; they say there is no guarantee that the positive effect of government spending can steadily outpace the negative effects of tax hikes.

Kan seems to be open to the idea of raising Japan’s consumption tax from its current level of 5%, though the approach of the upperhouse election on July and concerns over a political backlash suggest caution will be the government’s modus operandi.

“Any rise in the consumption tax rate must be offset by lower levies on daily goods as well as refunds for low-income households”, he recently said. But he also hopes to reduce corporate taxes from the current 40% rate to around 25%, in line with other major countries. In the foreign exchange market, Kan has earned a reputation as a weak-yen advocate. “The business community says that a yen in the mid-90s against the dollar is appropriate, so it would be better

if it weakens a bit further”, he said in January, shortly after becoming finance minister.

Fisher Capital Management - Japan Elects a New Premier Part 2: Market observers believe that Kan still supports a weaker yen and that the Japanese currency could depreciate against the US dollar. Regarding monetary policy, Kan is generally considered an advocate of inflation-targeting and quantitative easing. As finance minister, he has put some political pressure on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to fight deflation more aggressively, he nudged the BOJ to double a special bank lending program introduced in December. The bond market believes Kan is a wise choice to manage the sustainability of Japan’s government debt.

The DPJ had promised to unveil a long-term plan to improve public finances. However, “postponement is likely because of the current political churn, and any real ‘meat’ in the plan will probably not be disclosed until after the Upper House election” … says Flemming Nielsen, senior analyst at Danske research.

Kan is a self-made man, ascending into politics after years toiling in citizen movements and he has a reputation as a quick learner and a pragmatic politician, with sharp elbows and an aversion to any criticism.

The country he now leads is facing dire long-term problems that beg for strong leadership, including a staggering level of public debt, a stagnant economy, and an ageing population. He has a few weeks to fix the impression left by nine months of incompetent DPJ governance.

If he fails, the party will be routed in the elections for the Diet’s upper house.