Fisher Capital Management News: Equity Markets

Equity Markets: All the major equity markets, and most of the emerging

markets, Are stable over the past month. There had been expectations

that the Fed might introduce further quantitative easing measures at

its recent OMC meeting, and this provided some support for the markets

in the early part of the month; but it made only very modest.

Government Bond Markets: The major government bond markets have

made further significant gains over the past month, despite the funding

pressures resulting form huge fiscal deficits, and the renewed concerns

about debt defaults.

Short-term interest rates have remained low, and monetary policy has

been supportive; but it has been the enhanced “safe haven” status of

these markets that has provided most of the momentum, as investors

have sought “shelter from the current storm”. However the moves have

surprised most commentators, and this has led to warnings about “bond

bubbles” that will not be sustained.

Financial Markets: Sentiment in the financial markets has deteriorated.

Signs of slowdown in the Chinese economy, have produced a much

more cautious view of prospects for the rest of this year and in 2011;

and there have been renewed fears about banking problems in Europe,

and the likelihood of sovereign debt defaults. There have also been

further indications of the conflicting views of central banks about the

most appropriate response to the current problems.

Currency Markets: Uncertainty has been the main feature of the

currency markets over the past month. The dollar has recovered from

earlier weakness after the Fed made only very modest changes in its

monetary policy at the latest OMC meeting, and is ending the period

basically unchanged; sterling has weakened slightly against the dollar

but is higher against the euro; and the euro has also fallen back against

most other currencies as the fears about sovereign debt defaults in

Europe have increased.

But the feature of the currency markets over the month has been the

sharp appreciation of the yen because of its enhanced “safe haven”

status. The move is obviously an unwelcome development for the

Japanese authorities, and there has been considerable speculation about

intervention by the Bank of Japan to reverse it; but there has been no

action so far.

Short-Term Rates: There have been no changes in short-term rates in

the major financial centres this month.

Commodity markets have followed the trend in the other markets,

improving in the early part of the period, but falling back towards

month-end.

The main features have been the continued strength of wheat prices

after the Russian decision to suspend wheat and grain exports, and the

sharp fall in oil prices.

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